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The opening line can be a term that is thrown around pretty loosely when it comes to sports betting. You will often hear media outlets say “Vegas” opened the line this or “Vegas” has the line at that. But what does that really mean when we hear these expressions? Is there one sportsbook in Las Vegas setting all the lines? Do all the sportsbooks get together and agree on what the line should be? Does Las Vegas even really set the line at all?
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The History of Setting Opening Lines
There was a time many years ago when most of the betting lines did in fact originate from Las Vegas. Years ago, the legendary Bob Martin opened what came to be known as the Las Vegas Line during his stints at Churchill Downs and the Plaza. This line was gradually disseminated all over the country and more often than not tweaked based on anticipated regional action.
The tradition of Las Vegas helping to establish the opening lines continued years later as the Stardust Line became a respected number with the assistance of Roxy Roxborough and his company LVSC. In the mid-nineties as the internet rose to prominence and the most talented bookmakers migrated offshore, a new breed of oddsmakers emerged who set the lines from various island locales and were looking to deal higher limits than ever before to their growing customer base. This led to certain offshore sportsbooks becoming the gold standard as far as the opening line was concerned. Much of this had to do with liquidity and the fact that more money was being bet into these numbers than any other lines in the world.
The important thing to remember when discussing the opening line, is that it is just a jumping off point. It serves as a starting place for professional bettors to enter the marketplace and hammer the line out to where they believe it should be. Gambling markets are like all other markets in that they absorb information and reflect it. In the largest markets such as NFL, information is accounted for in the betting line in almost real time.
In theory, professional bettors will make a wager when they believe the current line does not accurately reflect what the information available suggests it should be. Bookmakers will react to these wagers looking to find the number that either divides the professional bettors or stops them from playing altogether. In the end, the most respected professional bettors will dictate what the betting line is, not the bookmaker. When recreational players make large wagers these wagers are often ignored due to the fact that they have no bearing on what the actual point spread should be and therefore have no reason to be reflected in the line.
How Betting Lines are Set Today
So this brings us to how the line is set today. Depending on the sport, an oddsmaker at a sportsbook will decide that he wants to open the first line. For a majority of the major American sports such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB, this still happens offshore. For college football, Circa Sports sets the first weekly line every Sunday during football season. Once that first line is posted, if the bookmaker is taking fair limits that are enough to attract professional bettors, these lines will be wagered into somewhat aggressively depending on whether or not the bettors see value. When lines are opened, the limits are usually lower and the book that opens them is willing to be first, either for the value they see in getting this early information or for the sheer notoriety of being the sportsbook that hangs the opening line.
Once other sportsbooks see these lines being bet into and feel comfortable hanging their own lines, they will usually open lines that are relatively close to what’s already available in the market. The reason they will hesitate to open too far off of the other sportsbooks’ lines is due to the proliferation of arbitrageurs in the marketplace looking to bet both sides of a game with little to no risk. If Circa Sports has opened Alabama -3 vs LSU, other sportsbooks would hesitate to open too far off this number knowing that they would be forcing arbitrage bettors to make a wager strictly because of any difference in the point spread.
The more time goes on and the longer these lines are bet into, the more sportsbooks around the world feel comfortable with recognizing the consensus line of the opener sportsbooks as the line they will utilize to do business. As sportsbooks around the world hang their lines, more and more bets begin to pour in, further solidifying what each book will utilize as their betting line.
When people refer to “Vegas” and what the line is they are usually referencing a consensus line from whatever they recognize as the most respected sportsbooks. The conversation regarding what are the most respected sportsbooks should always revolve around the sportsbooks that take the largest limits and don’t ban or limit players based on skill. In reality, the opening line is not as important as most people believe it is. It is the bettors who truly set the lines, not the oddsmaker.
Apple regularly schedules a September event to unveil new iPods and other odds and ends in time for the holiday buying season. I think we can assume this year will be more of the same. What will we see and what won't we see? I'm going to try to put some odds to the various rumors and possible announcements. Note that these are all just my opinion as a guy that watches what Apple does with a rather critical and overly obsessive eye. New iPod Touch - odds: even money
It's almost guaranteed we'll see a new iPod Touch introduced. This, like the iPhone announcement in June, has become a regular event. The question is what are the features we'll see? I'm hoping we will, as in past years, see feature plurality with the current generation iPhone. So we'll hopefully see the Retina Display (odds: 2-1), front facing camera with Facetime capability (odds: 3-1), rear camera (odds: 5-1). I'm also wondering if we'll see the storage capacity increased beyond 64GB (odds: 4-1). And will we see other iPod lines retired like the iPod Classic, perhaps (odds: 8-1)?
iOS 4.1 Officially Announced - odds: even
This is also a given. iOS 4.1 has been in beta for 9+ weeks now and it's been over 3 weeks since the last beta release. Betas usually come out every 2 weeks. So I think we can guess that it's done and ready to release. We can expect the release either next week on 9/1 or very shortly after. What features will it have? A fix for the proximity sensor (odds: even) and a Game Center release (odds: 3-1) are the best bets. There's the possibility that the length of time since the last beta was due to Apple adding in a mystery feature or two (odds: 5-1), or maybe it has to do with....
iOS 4.1 on the iPad - odds: 8-1
While I can't wait to get iOS 4 on the iPad, it won't be for a couple more months. I'm hoping that we'll at least get some details on iOS 4 for the iPad (odds: 4-1), but I won't hold my breath for that. Features I'm hoping for include support for running iPhone 4 resolution apps (odds: 4-1) and dashboard / icon layout update that takes better advantage of the screen size (odds: 30-1).
Updated Apple TV / iTV - odds: 5-1
This is the big new announcement most are expecting and an update to the Apple TV has been a long time coming. But I think Apple still sees it as too small of a market. I could be way off base here, but I think it's too early for this rumored update. Apple has had so many leak problems that we tend to know just about every detail of a new device before it's launched. We haven't seen anything about a new Apple TV other than a few persistent rumors. While this would be the perfect time to launch it, just before the holidays, I just think it's too early. But, in case it will be announced, the rumored features are a $99 price tag (odds: 10-1), and iOS based system (odds: 3-2), and App Store support of some kind (odds: 3-2).
I really hope I'm wrong about the Apple TV update and it does launch with all of the above. I'm certainly looking forward to this when it does launch and my head is spinning with the possibilities for apps for the device.
TV Show Rentals - odds: 3-2
This is almost a given. Goes along with the movie rentals and just makes sense. Once we have this, and on a new Apple TV, who will need their cable / satellite anymore? Along with this we'll likely see iTunes 10 released (odds: 3-2) as seems to happen with every major new iTunes-based service.
New 7' iPad - odds: 10-1
I think it's too early for new iPads. The current one is still nearly impossible to get. And I just don't see how a 7' version fits into the future plans for Apple. This only really makes sense in combination with an updated Apple TV. A 7', slightly cheaper (~$350) iPad model would make a great interactive, touch controlled remote control for an Apple TV though.
Updated iPads - odds: 20-1
In my mind, Apple made just one mistake with the current iPads -- too little memory. Running multitasking on the iPad will not be a pleasant experience. But, I'll put the odds at 20-1 that we'll see new ones right now. But if they are announced, will they have more memory, yes, of course (odds: even). Retina display on the 10' model -- not likely as the overall resolution would be too large (odds: 30-1). Front facing camera to join in on the FaceTime fun (odds: 3-1). But again, not at this event -- probably January.
iTunes Cloud Streaming - odds: 8-1
We know that iTunes cloud streaming is coming. And it should be coming soon as Apple's huge east coast data center is ready or almost so. But is it ready to announce? I don't think so. I believe we'll see a full announcement of lots of integrated cloud based services all at once and we'll find that the updated Apple TV might be integral to that.
Oh yeah, and the non-iOS related stuff still exists too...
Updated iLife - odds: 2-1 it's been 18 months, an update is due. Only thing that could be holding it back is previously mentioned large-scale cloud services announcement.
Macbook Air Update - odds: 8-1
Macbook Air Retirement - odds: 4-1
It's time to update or retire it.
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We'll be covering the major points of the event live on our @148Apps Twitter account next Wednesday starting at 10AM Pacific. And we'll undoubtedly have a recap for you afterward.
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What do you think? Let's say this is a race track and you have $100 to bet however you wanted on the above possible winners. Who would you pick and how would you put your money down? LEt us know in the comments below.